- © 2014 by the Seismological Society of America
Online Material: Tables of static Coulomb failure stress variation and regression coefficients.
Probabilistic fault‐based and time‐dependent seismic‐hazard studies are commonly used to forecast the time between consecutive earthquakes; however, the correct evaluation of key parameters is critical for obtaining accurate results.
Probabilities of occurrence must be input to formulate seismic design maps and to develop national recommendations for building codes around the world (e.g., Field et al., 2009; Stucchi et al., 2011; Stirling et al., 2012). The basic requirements for computing earthquake probabilities are the mean recurrence time and its variability. To understand the statistical behavior of earthquakes, data on long earthquake sequences is necessary. However, worldwide during the instrumental period (approximately the past century), no major active fault segment has entirely ruptured more than once. Additional information on the recurrence of such events can be found in historical documents and damaged archaeological structures. Surface ruptures can also be preserved in sedimentary deposits, leading to paleoseismological records. In many cases, the compilation of these data sources for a given fault segment may yield catalogs of large earthquakes that include 3–4 events, with exceptional examples reaching 15 events (e.g., the San Andreas fault system, Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [WGCEP], 2007; the Jordan valley fault, Ferry et al., 2011).
Therefore, considering that the period over which historical and palaeohistorical earthquake records are available is relatively short compared to the recurrence time of major earthquakes, synthetic catalogs generated from numerical simulation models are needed. Earthquake simulations model long earthquake histories using various approximations of what is known about the physics of stress transfer due to fault slip and the rheological proprieties of faults (Tullis, 2012a). Today, the scientific knowledge regarding earthquake dynamics is far from complete; moreover, a realistic simulation of a full earthquake cycle over sufficient …